Paddock Watcher

I have lived and breathed racing for over 50 years still ride out my own thoroughbreds and now make my living backing horses either on or off course. Started my own Free site in April and expect it to take me to next April to get it up and running





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Upcoming Tips:
Glory Fighter @ 12/1
NB • Ascot 14:30
Global Giant @ 150/1
3B • Ascot 15:05
Dancing Brave Bear @ 22/1
NAP • Ascot 15:40

Last 150 Settled Tips

The latest 50 settled tips placed by Paddockwatcher

Look My Way @ 25/1 (win)
NAP • Ascot 17:00 • 19th Jun '18

5:00 Ascot Stales Handicap 20 Runners Of this is always a difficult race to find the winner and Willie Mullins has a very strong hand in the event. He has won the race 3 times in the last 6 years and each time with Ryan Moore in the saddle. Of course his runner Chelkar who is a debutante here but a 3 time winner in France with Moore up is the forecast favourite. Mullins has 5 runners in the race all at the head of the market and his runners will draw plenty of attention. The one who I think is good value for money here is Chester winner Look My Way, Coeur De Lion was bearing down on him at Chester with every stride and is quite rightly priced up at 7/1 here. Look My Way is extremely game and currently 18/1 and I am sure we will get 20/1 or better than that before post time. It will be an extremely tight race but the value is there to be had.

Implicit @ 9/4 (win)
NAP • Windsor 18:30 • 18th Jun '18
Critical Data @ 5/1 (win)
NAP • Salisbury 15:55 • 17th Jun '18
Under The Phone @ 14/1 (win) BOG
NAP • Fontwell 19:55 • 16th Jun '18

7:55 Warwick 3m 2f Hcp Hurdle. Remember Under The Phone who we were on at Warwick at 14/1 and he should have bolted up for us. Only Bolting he did was with the jockey when she could neither hold him or steer him, he went sight seeing out in the country and ran so wide around the track the commentator said ("Under The Phone is still there despite running a furlong further than the rest of the field") Though Under The Phone is predominantly a chaser he seems to do just as well over hurdles, stays forever and will be well suited to this race. James Nixon takes off a valuable 7lb and is capable of riding a finish. This is a much tougher race than Under The Phones last race at Warwick with the Skelton's running Im Always Trying who they have taken over from David Pipe. They will want to make an impression first time out under their care, the horse has already been backed as soon as the books opened. I am hoping the price of Under The Phone Drifts out.

Marechal Ney @ 7/2 (win)
NB • Sandown 17:00 • 16th Jun '18

5:00 Sandown 1m 2f Maiden John Gosden saddles the first two in the market here but Marechal Nev 7/2 looks like the big improver in this. Very slow away first time out he made up plenty of ground in the straight quickened nicely from the back of the field, never had a chance from his position and was not really popped the question. He will be much more street wise today. Not sure this price will last...

Shining @ 6/1 (win)
3B • Bath 15:30 • 16th Jun '18

3:30 Bath 5f Novice Stakes As far as I am aware J Boyle has only ever had one first time out winner from over 170 tries. That being the case Shining 6/1 ran an extremely good race at Windsor first time out. He looked in need of the race and faded in the last 100yds. Up to 1f out he was showing very good pace for a horse not at his best, and a little improvement today will see him put in a good show here. At 6/1 he has a very good chance of making the frame.

Hurricane Sky @ 13/2 (win)
NAP • Leopardstown 20:35 • 14th Jun '18
Rockwood @ 8/1 (win)
NB • Haydock 20:25 • 14th Jun '18
£120.00 Ragstone View @ 12/1 (win)
3B • Newbury 16:00 • 14th Jun '18
£60.00 Drill @ 6/1 (win)
NAP • Chelmsford City 17:20 • 13th Jun '18

5:20 Chelmsford Now that Drill has drifted to 6/1 he looks excellent E/W value in this. The Distance should suit him better than the 1m he contested last time. He is bred well enough to get the trip. He was easily beaten by Mutafani last time but held on well to finish 2nd. He is up against it here but there is plenty of E/W value at 6/1.

Letmestopyouthere @ 5/1 (win)
NAP • Salisbury 17:30 • 12th Jun '18
£5.65 Letmestopyouthere (place) BOG
NAP • Salisbury 17:30 • 12th Jun '18
Bobby Joe Leg @ 25/1 (win)
NAP • Pontefract 20:40 • 11th Jun '18

8:40 Pontefract: 6f Handicap Mrs Carr's horses generally need 1 or 2 runs to show their best though this year that has not always been the case. If Bobby Joe Leg 25/1 can show the form he has on the All Weather he could well be to the fore here at a very nice price and maybe is worth a small E/W in this.

Icefall @ 18/1 (win)
NB • Pontefract 19:10 • 11th Jun '18

7:10 Pontefract 2m 1f Handicap As much as I like Becky The Thatcher in this who must still be way in front of the handicapper judging by the way she won at Carlisle last time out.I really do not like her price of 9/4, we need to do better than that. There is another choice in the race who could well improve here. Icefall has won here in the past and at a big price too. He is now on his third run from a break and coming from the Tim Easterby stable I can see him makng a very big improvement soon. At his current price of 18/1 there is more value in him than in Becky The Thatcher at 9/4.

£27.50 Four White Socks @ 11/4 (win)
NAP • Goodwood 16:55 • 10th Jun '18
Jewel Of The Sea @ 33/1 (win)
NAP • Lingfield 18:20 • 9th Jun '18
Jewel Of The Sea (place) BOG
NAP • Lingfield 18:20 • 9th Jun '18
Move Swiftly @ 13/8 (win)
3B • Wolverhampton 16:50 • 8th Jun '18

4:50 Wolverhampton: Novice Auction Stakes Move Swiftly is best priced at 6/4 (888Sport) and I can see him being backed down later in the day. He won his only race to date quite well, both the 2nd and 3rd have come out and won since. We can expect Move Swiftly to to be well forward for his return today and he could stat much shorter than his current price.

Attain @ 9/1 (win) BOG
NAP • Wolverhampton 15:20 • 8th Jun '18

3:20 Wolverhampton: 1m4f Handicap My Fantasea is well fancied here being backed down from 6/1 last night to 3/1 favourite today He saves his best for Wolverhampton where his last four form figures read 1212. He often runs up with the pace and usually leads here, so why when at Doncaster last time he was held up at the back and never looked likely of coming with a run we can only make our own judgement. He again will be at the fore front today and we can expect a good run. However the hype about My Fantasia has pushed the price of Attain out to 5/1 which is very good value. Attain won an Amateur riders event last time at Lingfield very comfortably and at 5/1 seems better value than My Fantasea.

Lady Dancealot @ 10/3 (win)
NB • Carlisle 15:00 • 8th Jun '18

3:00 Carlisle: 6f Fillies Hcp The last four winners that Derek Elsworth has sent out have all won on their third run from a break, which suggests that his string are not well forward when returning from their winter break. If that is the case with Lady Dancealot then she ran a cracker at Goodwood last time and we can expect further improvement today She is up against a hot favourite here in Angels who won fairly comfortably at Pontefract last time. I believe there has been too much made of that win and though connections are planning to go to Royal Ascot with her she will need to show much more here today. At 100/30 There is value in Lady Dancealot price and she is worthy of being one of our four today.

£5.50 Employer (place)
NAP • Yarmouth 16:20 • 7th Jun '18
Employer @ 11/2 (win)
NAP • Yarmouth 16:20 • 7th Jun '18
Jessie Allan @ 8/1 (win) BOG
3B • Hamilton 17:00 • 6th Jun '18

5:00 Hamilton 5f Apprentice Handicap There is not much to choose between Only Spoofing and Jessie Allan except the price. Only Spoofing is 4/5 and Jessie Allan is 4/1. Only Spoofing has the more experienced apprentice on board but in this race 4/1 about Jessie Allan is worth taking an E/W shot at, too at least get the majority of your stake back if she finishes 2nd.

Firewater @ 16/1 (win)
NB • Hamilton 14:00 • 6th Jun '18

2:00 Hamilton 2yo Novice Auction Stakes Richard Fahey's runners are still taking one or two races before showing their best. His runner in this Firewater may just need one more run even though he will improve on his last run slightly here. Racing at the back of the field he made some ground in the closing stages. He is priced at 16/1 here today and I think as an E/W price that is very good, he just may find one or two too good though depending how much he has come on. 16/1 is worth a small E/W.

Firewater (place) BOG
NB • Hamilton 14:00 • 6th Jun '18
Catchin Time @ 6/1 (win) BOG
NAP • Uttoxeter 13:40 • 6th Jun '18

1:40 Uttoxeter 2m Handicap Hurdle Lara Hurley has not had a winner now since February 2017 though the few horses she has have been performing well, I think today is her best chance for some time Catchin Time has improved in both his last two runs and would not need to improve anymore to take this event, currently 4/1 but I would not take anything less than 3/1.

Blazed @ 11/4 (win)
NB • Newcastle 20:45 • 5th Jun '18
£30.00 Little Jack @ 3/1 (win)
NAP • Fontwell 17:15 • 5th Jun '18
Spock @ 28/1 (win) BOG
3B • Bangor 16:00 • 5th Jun '18
Spock (place) BOG
3B • Bangor 16:00 • 5th Jun '18
Caridade @ 11/2 (win)
NB • Ayr 18:30 • 4th Jun '18

6:30 Ayr 6f Fillies Handicap Caridade at 11/2 looks good value here she last ran in a better race than this finishing 4th of 5 beaten 8 Lengths. That was her first run for 210 days, the race was run quite slowly and when the pace quickened she could not go with them, she will be sharper today and this drop in class will suit her 11/2 is a good price.

Life On Earth @ 12/1 (win)
NAP • Leicester 16:10 • 4th Jun '18
Life On Earth (place)
NAP • Leicester 16:10 • 4th Jun '18
£35.00 Beringer @ 7/2 (win)
3B • Leicester 15:40 • 4th Jun '18
Rosie Mcqueen @ 9/2 (win)
NAP • Worcester 17:35 • 2nd Jun '18

5:35 Worcester 2m 7f Mares Handicap Hurdle Rosie McQueen has never been tried over this trip before, but she is well bred to get the trip on her Dams side, her Dam has turned out 7 foals "Poor Thing" all stayers so the trip should not be a problem. Her form is good enough to take this race comfortably, the problem is she has not been out for 144 days. She last ran in January and in that race she was the first to be pushed along from four out, The pace had been quite slow to that point and she could not quicken with the rest, but she kept finding more and the closer the winning post came the closer she got. today's distance will be much better for her. If we new the reason for her absence I could be more sure on how she will perform today, Jonjo ONeill's horses do sometimes perform well after a break but also they can perform poorly, As most of her half Brothers and Sisters have been chasers and as Rosie McQueen jumps like a stag her future will clearly be over fences. I am going to presume she is fit today and as this is Aidan Coleman's only ride today. She should be worth supporting at 9/2. As I say I do have some concerns so do not get carried away with this.

£25.00 Ganayem @ 5/2 (win)
3B • Goodwood 20:50 • 1st Jun '18

8:50 Goodwood 1m Fillies Novice Stakes Ganayem won the race in which Fresh Terms finished 7th and won in very good style indeed, I made the note that she could step up in class from that race, and though there may be potentially some very decent newcomers here Ganayem will take an awful lot of beating, at 11/4 she is worth supporting.

Fresh Terms @ 11/4 (win) BOG
NB • Doncaster 20:40 • 1st Jun '18
£110.00 Big Picture @ 11/1 (win)
NAP • Market Rasen 14:50 • 1st Jun '18

2:50 Market Rasen 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle Stef Keniry is a new trainer who is yet to have a runner, she must think she has improved Mission Trio out of sight as it has been backed from 33/1 down to 9/1, we can only see what happens there. Atalantas Gold is the 3/1 favourite here which is a bit of surprise. She won a conditional jockeys handicap last time out, and though the time was quick the rest of the field were either out of form or making their come back appearances. Looking for value in this race was quite easy Big Picture showed much improved form last time against horses that were actually in form prior to the race. That was over 3 miles and though he is bred as a stayer I am hopeful this 2m 5f race will also suit him well. At 11/1 he has held his price steady throughout the morning and for me he is very good E/W value...

£35.00 Patchouli @ 7/2 (win)
3B • Lingfield 16:40 • 31st May '18
Lucky Lucky Man @ 11/2 (win)
NB • Wolverhampton 14:50 • 31st May '18
Delft Dancer @ 10/3 (win) BOG
NAP • Hamilton 14:00 • 31st May '18
Under The Phone @ 14/1 (win)
NB • Warwick 20:20 • 30th May '18

8:20 Warwick 3m 2f Handicap Hurdle. This is an outsider with an Outsiders Chance and no more than that, so as previously if we make money on Island Of Life then split your winnings or less than your winnings each way on Under The Phone who is currently 14/1 but I am hopeful of getting 20/1 nearer race time. Under The Phone is predominantly a chaser and has run in Chases in his last twelve races. He jumps well, the reason I have gone for him is that he is now on his fourth race after having nearly 2 years off the course. He is ridden by a jockey having only her second ride in public, the last one being in January on Galactic Power. I have obviously scrutinised that ride time and again. Cerise Biddle looks to stick well to her horse but as Under The Phone is a good jumper of fences that should not be a problem here. My biggest concern would be, can she ride a strong finish. "We Will see" I believe Under The Phone should be in his best condition for this race. He seems to act best on Soft going, the forecast going at Warwick today is Good, but with all the rain about at the moment by the time it comes around to the 8:20 I think it should be soft enough. After watching his races he always seems to be found wanting for pace in the final 3 furlongs or so and looks as though this 3m 2f trip will really suit him. There are plenty in here with a chance, so care should definitely be taken. Wait until nearer the race too as he really should drift to around 20/1.

Island Of Life @ 11/8 (win)
NAP • Nottingham 14:50 • 30th May '18
£22.50 Considered Opinion @ 9/4 (win)
NB • Wolverhampton 20:40 • 29th May '18
Tiffin Top @ 15/2 (win)
NAP • Leicester 16:20 • 29th May '18

4:20 Leicester 1m 2f Hcp This is a pretty open looking Hcp, again it is open to something improving running in their first handicap, but no more so than Tiffin Top 7/1, Tiffin Top appeared to run very green when returning from a 225 day break at Nottingham, he was well beaten by his stable companion the very decent Raa Atoll, he did not handle the bends too well that day and when popped the question did not find another gear until it was far too late at which point O'Neill gave up the chase, and rightly so. He will be much more street wise today and this stiffer course could well play to his strengths, 7/1 is a good price, do not take 4/1 or less...

Blue Candy @ 50/1 (win) BOG
NB • Windsor 18:25 • 28th May '18
Blue Candy (place) BOG
NB • Windsor 18:25 • 28th May '18
Some Finish @ 9/1 (win)
NAP • Huntingdon 13:30 • 28th May '18
Night Of Glory @ 12/1 (win)
NAP • Chester 15:30 • 26th May '18
Marylebone @ 40/1 (win) BOG
NAP • Haydock 13:50 • 25th May '18

1:50 Haydock 1m2f Hcp This is not by any means a certainty to run well, but his price is really too good to miss. Marylebone has both changed trainer and owner for his last two races. But still did not really perform well in either. The horse has ability as he has shown in the past. He is trying a trip beyond a mile today for the first time, and we cannot be sure that will suit him either. If D C Griffiths has managed to get a little bit more interest out of him he may not be far away here. This is the lowest grade race he has ever been in, for example the average official rating of today's runners is 65 the lowest he has contested in the past is 74, today's favourite Mac Opolo the highest he has contested is 68, therefore this is major drop in ability of the contestants for Marylebone he has also been dropped a further 7lb for this event. he is currently best priced at 25/1 and I am hopeful of getting at least 33/1. This is an outsider that will need to show improvement but his price could be very worthwhile, but care is advised. Do not take less than 20/1 as that is probably his true price


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Records shown after 100 tips have been settled

Tip Record
Tips P/L
Chelmsford City 34 296.70
Chepstow 28 204.75
Market Rasen 24 161.85
Lingfield 35 122.40
Huntingdon 14 105.75
Wolverhampton 57 96.90
Kelso 11 83.13
Ayr 20 78.75
Musselburgh 20 70.55
Windsor 17 70.00
Doncaster 11 60.00
Ffos Las 13 50.00
Cheltenham 11 30.00
Fontwell 20 20.00
Thirsk 12 14.95
Ascot 14 5.00
Southwell 34 3.20
Hexham 10 0.00
Aintree 11 -5.00
Ludlow 10 -10.00
Kempton 29 -11.00
Carlisle 13 -27.50
Exeter 19 -28.00
Uttoxeter 19 -36.85
Yarmouth 10 -39.50
Sedgefield 11 -51.30
Fakenham 10 -51.30
Catterick 13 -52.70
Newcastle 20 -60.00
Hereford 11 -61.30
Brighton 13 -71.25
Leicester 18 -77.50
Bangor 13 -90.00
Haydock 12 -100.00
Blog Record
Tips P/L
Wincanton 11 581.00


tips placed
win strike rate
Overall ROI
12 Month ROI
6 Month ROI
3 Month ROI
Best day
Best blogging day

Strike Rate

Average odds: 11.17
P/L: £290.35

NB Win
Strike Rate

Average odds: 11.62
P/L: £335.40

3B Win
Strike Rate

Average odds: 12.83
P/L: £269.16

Blog Win
Strike Rate

Average odds: 11.47
P/L: 12.025 points
Month Tips P/L
June 2018 35 178.65
May 2018 52 192.08
April 2018 57 193.75
March 2018 39 48.00
February 2018 26 38.00
January 2018 33 -9.60
December 2017 67 -16.85
November 2017 54 259.30
October 2017 81 196.50
September 2017 66 -38.90
August 2017 78 -146.02
Month Tips P/L
June 2018 6 -30.00
May 2018 3 -15.00
April 2018 1 -5.00
March 2018 5 -25.00
February 2018 3 16.55
December 2017 25 27.35
November 2017 8 43.75
October 2017 34 -43.08
September 2017 20 12.45
August 2017 5 30.00
Times as top tipster
Times as in top 5
Times in top 10